Hawks vs 76ers

Atlanta’s Jalen Johnson is carrying a Hawks group that has gone 10-5 since Trae Young’s knee injury, leaning on league-best ball movement, a top-half offense, and his all-around production at 21.9 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per night to offset the absences of Young and Kristaps Porziņģis. With Onyeka Okongwu and Zaccharie Risacher flanking him, Atlanta’s core is relatively intact compared to a Sixers team missing Joel Embiid and multiple rotation wings, leaving Tyrese Maxey and Paul George to shoulder huge workloads after an overtime explosion in Milwaukee and a big night in Brooklyn just to get to 10-8. Recent form tilts slightly toward the Hawks (3–2 in their last five with quality wins over New Orleans and Cleveland) versus a Sixers group that just oscillated between a 41-point home drubbing by Orlando and a bounce-back win over the Nets, and Atlanta also took both late-season meetings in 2024-25 with double-digit margins. Given Atlanta’s healthier frontcourt, superior net rating, and more stable rotation against a thin Philly bench, I like the Hawks to win outright at essentially pick’em pricing, but the modest edge and road variance keep this at a B-grade value play rather than something higher. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/11/2025 09:42am

Tyrese Maxey turns Philadelphia into a faster, more perimeter-heavy outfit whenever Embiid sits, and that’s showing up in the numbers with the Sixers scoring 117.4 points per game but allowing 118.4, while Atlanta games are landing around 232 total points on average (117.3 scored, 114.4 allowed) behind their high-assist, three-point-happy offense. Both frontcourts are depleted — Embiid, Porziņģis, N’Faly Dante, and multiple Sixers forwards are out or banged up — which removes a lot of rim protection and should open driving lanes for Maxey, Paul George, Johnson, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, especially with Andre Drummond not fully healthy. Recent results back the shootout script: Philly just gave up 144 at home to Orlando and then won 115-103 in Brooklyn, while last season’s two Hawks-Sixers meetings finished at 251 and 234 points, reinforcing how easily this matchup can get into the high 230s when pace picks up and threes are falling. The concern is offensive efficiency from deep-bench bigs and second units playing expanded roles, which introduces more volatility than usual, so while the math leans to the Over 230 at essentially standard juice, I’m grading it a B- rather than something stronger. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/11/2025 09:42am

The Hawks, even without Trae Young and Kristaps Porziņģis, are playing the more connected two-way basketball right now, riding Johnson’s breakout, Risacher’s scoring, and a disruptive perimeter group led by Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels to a +2.9 net rating and fifth place in the East at 12-8. Philadelphia, by contrast, enters at 10-8 with a -1.0 net rating and a rotation gutted by injuries to Embiid, Kelly Oubre Jr., VJ Edgecombe, Trendon Watford, and a hobbled Andre Drummond, forcing Maxey to log heavy minutes as a primary creator while George ramps up after his own absences. Maxey’s career 17.7 points and 5.1 assists per game against Atlanta show he can punish the Hawks’ backcourt, but this version of Philly has far less frontcourt size than the groups where Joel Embiid historically shredded Atlanta (26.4 points and 9.8 rebounds per game in the matchup), which should tilt the glass and rim pressure toward Johnson, Okongwu, and Atlanta’s cutters. Given that the Hawks swept the late-2024-25 series with 13- and 12-point wins and currently profile as the deeper, more coherent team while catching a point on the road in what’s effectively a coin-flip environment, I see Hawks +1 at -108 as slightly better value than the moneyline and worthy of a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/11/2025 09:42am