Hawks vs Grizzlies

Memphis leans on Ja Morant’s renewed burst and Jaren Jackson Jr.’s two-way presence as it returns from the London win over Orlando looking to build on a much-needed spark while Atlanta limps in on a four-game losing streak and a 20-25 mark. With Kristaps Porzingis, Zaccharie Risacher and N’Faly Dante all sidelined, the Hawks’ frontcourt depth and rim protection are compromised, putting extra pressure on Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jalen Johnson to keep up with a Grizzlies offense that just got its lead guard back and is 18-23 but trending upward after the European trip. Morant has historically produced well against Atlanta and, paired with Jackson’s strong track record versus the Hawks and Memphis’ slightly better underlying defensive profile at home, the Grizzlies have the cleaner path to a result in what projects as a pseudo-play-in measuring stick for both conferences. Given the juice at -143 this is more of a solid conviction than a smash spot, but with Atlanta’s skid, injury issues, and road spot against a Memphis core finally closer to full strength, the Grizzlies moneyline gets a B+ for likelihood and reasonable value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:47.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/atl/atlanta-hawks))

Atlanta’s attack, now driven by Alexander-Walker’s 20-plus per night and Johnson’s all-around playmaking, has kept the Hawks top-10 in scoring and playing at one of the league’s fastest paces, but their bottom-tier defense has them bleeding 119 points per game and forces them into track meets almost every night. On the other side, Memphis sits around league average in defense yet still allows enough efficient looks, and with Morant back orchestrating and Jackson stretching the floor, the Grizzlies’ offense is trending up toward the mid-pack after hovering in the low 20s in offensive rating, especially noticeable in the London split with two high-scoring games against Orlando. With both teams having reached the midpoint of the season and fighting to stay in the play-in picture, there’s little incentive to slow tempo, and the combination of Atlanta’s shaky defense, their reliance on volume threes, and Memphis’ improved creation and spacing suggests extended scoring runs from both sides that can push this total past 237.5 despite the lofty number. That leaves the Over at -110 graded as a B — volatility is real at this height, but the pace, offensive profiles, and defensive vulnerabilities on both ends make an above-average case for another high-scoring night. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:47.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4278039/nickeil-alexander-walker?utm_source=openai))

The Grizzlies’ front line with Jackson and Santi Aldama has a clear size and continuity edge over a Hawks group missing Porzingis and relying heavily on small-ball spacing, which becomes more problematic on the road against a Memphis defense that, while not elite, ranks solidly in the middle of the league. Morant’s career production against Atlanta has been strong, and his recent 20-and-10 type form since returning provides a reliable pressure point at the point of attack, especially with the Hawks’ perimeter defense already strained by the offensive load Alexander-Walker must carry and the absence of a traditional All-Star initiator after the Trae Young deal. With Atlanta on a four-game slide and clinging to the back end of the East play-in race while Memphis sits just behind the West’s cutoff but comes in off a morale-boosting London win, the situational spot favors the home side’s intensity; that, plus Memphis’ slightly better net rating and healthier core, nudges this from moneyline lean to a willingness to lay the short -2.5. Factoring in Atlanta’s ability to shoot themselves into games but also to collapse defensively late, Grizzlies -2.5 at -110 earns a B: a reasonable edge on both matchup and motivation without being so strong that it justifies a top-tier grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:47.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/atl/atlanta-hawks))