Hawks vs Hornets

Jalen Johnson and the Hawks come into Charlotte on a modest one-game upswing after outlasting Philadelphia, while the Hornets ride a single-game streak from their OT win in Cleveland but are still just 4–6 over their last 10 and only 2–4 across the last six. With Trae Young still working back from an MCL sprain and Kristaps Porzingis out, Atlanta has leaned on the Johnson–Dyson Daniels–Onyeka Okongwu trio to drive an offense around 118 points per night with a positive overall scoring differential, which has held up even against stronger East opponents. Charlotte’s injury report is even heavier — LaMelo Ball, Collin Sexton, Tre Mann, Grant Williams and Pat Connaughton are all in various out/questionable designations — forcing rookie Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges into huge usage against a longer, more switchable Hawks front line. Atlanta has owned this matchup recently, sweeping last season’s series with double-digit wins in Charlotte and taking this year’s first meeting 113–110 behind 28 from Johnson, so even acknowledging road variance and uncertain star availability, I still prefer the Hawks straight up at -205 on the moneyline with a B grade for confidence and value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 09:37am

Charlotte’s offense, despite that OT win in Cleveland, has been uneven during a 4–6 stretch, and if Ball, Sexton and multiple guards remain banged up, the Hornets again become heavily dependent on Knueppel, Bridges and Miller to manufacture half-court looks rather than play at pure track-meet pace. Atlanta, meanwhile, is 5–5 in its last 10 and also short-handed (Young questionable, Porzingis out), but Okongwu’s rim protection and their length on the perimeter have produced a modestly improved defense even as the Hawks continue to score around 118 per game, leaving their games more often landing in the low-to-mid 230s than the 240s. The combined season profiles — Hawks scoring 118.0 and allowing 117.4, Hornets scoring 114.8 and allowing 118.4 — project closer to the low 230s than the 239.5 total, and recent meetings (113–110 in November, 134–102 last March) have generally come in at or below this elevated number once you adjust for garbage time. With both teams riding only one-game win streaks, multiple primary creators still at less than full health, and each side happy to lean on set actions through Johnson, Daniels, Bridges and Knueppel, I’m grading Under 239.5 (-110) as a B- play that banks on some shooting regression and slightly slower tempo rather than another extreme shootout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 09:37am

Dyson Daniels’ surge — including a 27-point, 10-board line in the win over the 76ers — has helped keep Atlanta afloat during a 5–5 stretch, and paired with Johnson’s triple-double run they now face a Hornets team that, while coming off that OT win, is still just 4–6 in its last 10 and has repeatedly struggled to finish close games. The injury reports on both sides introduce real volatility: Young is still not 100% and Porzingis remains out, but Charlotte’s list (Ball, Sexton, Mann, Williams, Connaughton) leaves them even thinner in shot creation and spacing, putting a heavy burden on Bridges and Knueppel against a long Hawks defense that can switch most matchups. Recent history tilts toward Atlanta covering this number — they swept last year’s series with comfortable margins in Charlotte and took this season’s first meeting by three on a night when the Hornets were healthier in the backcourt — and the Hawks’ edge in three-point volume and efficiency can help offset Charlotte’s rebounding advantage over 48 minutes. Still, with both teams essentially on one-game streaks and star availability a game-time call, I’m only willing to lay the -5.5 with a C+ grade, viewing it as a lean that benefits most if Young plays and Ball sits rather than a spot to overextend bankroll. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 09:37am