Falcons vs Cardinals

Bijan Robinson and the Falcons come in off that emotional 29-28 comeback win at Tampa, while the Cardinals limp home on a six-game skid in which they’ve dropped 11 of 12 and bled points defensively, making Atlanta the side I trust slightly more on the moneyline despite both teams being long eliminated from the NFC playoff race. With Kirk Cousins stabilizing the Falcons’ passing game, a run offense that’s been significantly more efficient than Arizona’s over the full season, and an Atlanta pass rush pushing toward a franchise sack record, the matchup leans toward the road favorite against a Cardinals defense that has surrendered 40-plus in four of its last six outings and ranks near the bottom of the league in recent defensive success rate. Arizona’s hope of an upset rests on Jacoby Brissett’s high-volume air attack and a home field that’s historically been kind to the Cards in this series, but a banged-up offensive line and secondary — plus key names like Marvin Harrison Jr. and multiple starting DBs managing injuries — make it harder to fully capitalize, even if Drake London’s own knee issue and several Atlanta defenders on the report add some volatility. Given Atlanta’s slight statistical edges on both lines of scrimmage, their fresher momentum versus Arizona’s freefall, and market respect already baked into a rich price, I’ll back the Falcons to win outright at -160 but keep it to a B-grade confidence rather than pushing all in on a fragile 5-9 road favorite. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:59. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/raheem-morris-upset-win-should-spur-falcons-finish-strong--flm-2025-12-16/?utm_source=openai))

Jacoby Brissett has quietly turned Arizona into one of the league’s most pass-happy attacks, averaging north of 40 attempts per game over his starting run and driving a Cardinals offense that sits in the low-20s in points per game but plays in shootouts because its defense has cratered, allowing over 36 points a night across the current losing streak and 40-plus in four of the last six. Atlanta, meanwhile, has found an offensive spark down the stretch behind Robinson, Cousins, and a likely returning Drake London, and their games have recently skewed high-scoring as their defense has leaked explosive plays through the air despite strong sack numbers, creating exactly the kind of script where both teams can trade touchdowns. Indoors at State Farm Stadium, with no weather drag, a Cardinals scheme that throws at one of the highest rates over expectation in the league, and a Falcons offense facing a defense that struggles to generate pressure or stop the run, the ingredients line up for sustained drives, red-zone trips, and enough explosives from stars like Robinson and Trey McBride to threaten the 50s. With market totals already nudging upward during the week and both teams showing recent Over trends, I’m comfortable backing Over 48 at -110 and grading it a B+ play on the expectation that both vulnerable defenses yield more than a few scoring chances. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:59. ([statmuse.com](https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/arz-cardinals-record-2025?utm_source=openai))

Given how this matchup profiles, I’m inclined to grab the full field goal with Arizona +3 rather than lay points with an inconsistent Falcons team on the road, especially in a series where the Cards are 12-2 at home against Atlanta, 5-0 at State Farm Stadium, and the last three meetings have all been decided by two points or fewer on late-game kicks. While the Falcons do bring better trench play and a dangerous run game, they’re still just 5-9 and coming off an emotional short-week win, facing a Cardinals offense that throws at extreme volume with Brissett and can chase from behind, with McBride and (if active) Harrison Jr. stressing an Atlanta secondary that’s also managing its own injury issues. Both sides are already out of the playoff picture, which tends to tilt games toward volatility and backdoor covers, and even Rotowire’s own AI simulations saw Falcons–Cardinals as essentially a coin flip across multiple runs, suggesting the true talent gap may not match a full three-point spread. Between Arizona’s historical home edge in this series, their pass-game-driven ability to stay within one score, and the risk that Atlanta’s penalties and late-game execution again turn a likely win into a tight margin, I’ll take the Cardinals +3 at -115 with a B- grade, expecting a one-score game either way. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:59. ([statefarmstadium.com](https://www.statefarmstadium.com/events/detail/falcons-vs-cardinals-2025?utm_source=openai))