Ducks vs Capitals

Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals get a favorable spot here, facing a Ducks team that has dropped five straight and been outscored badly while Washington sits at 21-15-6 overall with a solid 12-7-3 mark at Capital One Arena. Anaheim’s five-game skid includes defensive leaks that show up in their 3.56 goals against per game, while the Caps’ more balanced profile (3.18 goals for, 2.74 against) and last-change advantage should matter in matchups against Anaheim’s top line. The injury picture tilts slightly toward Washington even with Tom Wilson, Aliaksei Protas and Pierre-Luc Dubois all banged up, because the Ducks are missing key finisher Frank Vatrano, forcing more minutes onto younger forwards and shrinking their secondary scoring. Historically, Ovechkin has torched Anaheim with well over a point per game in 28 meetings, and with the Caps still firmly in the Metro playoff hunt while Anaheim clings to the Pacific wild-card mix at 45 points, Washington has more incentive to clamp down at home after losing the first meeting in a shootout. With the Ducks only 9-9-2 on the road and allowing over four goals per game across their last ten, I project the Caps winning this one around 60–62 percent of the time, which gives mild value versus the implied 58–59 percent at -143, good enough for a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/01/2026 09:25

This matchup quietly sets up for offense, with Anaheim playing high-event hockey (3.29 goals for and 3.56 against per game, bottom-tier penalty kill at 75.6 percent) and Washington bringing its own 3.18 goals per game plus a dangerous, if inconsistent, power play built around Ovechkin’s left-circle one-timer. Both teams have been leaking chances lately: over their last ten, the Ducks have allowed 4.1 goals per night while the Caps have given up 3.4, and each side is averaging roughly three goals for, suggesting that pace rather than lockdown structure is the current norm. The earlier meeting finished 4-3 in a shootout (six goals before the skills competition), and with Anaheim’s penalty parade and weak PK facing Washington’s volume shooters, special teams alone could drive several tallies even if Logan Thompson and the Ducks’ tandem play reasonably well at five-on-five. Vatrano’s absence trims a bit of Anaheim’s finishing, but with Cutter Gauthier, Troy Terry, Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish all in form, there’s still enough firepower to force Washington out of its shell in what both clubs know is a key midseason game for the playoff race. At 6.5 with the Over priced at -105, you’re paying close to even money for what looks like a slightly better-than-coin-flip shot at seven or more goals, which earns this total a B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/01/2026 09:25

Given the context, I’d rather grab the cushion with Anaheim on the puckline than lay goals with Washington, even while expecting the Caps to take the game outright. The Ducks have already beaten Washington 4-3 in a shootout this season and, despite their current five-game slide, still score enough (top-10 offense by goals per game) to trade chances and keep margins tight, especially with playmakers like Cutter Gauthier, Troy Terry and Leo Carlsson driving their attack and Mason McTavish providing matchup-proof center depth. Washington’s recent 3-5-2 stretch, plus day-to-day knocks to Tom Wilson and Aliaksei Protas and the longer-term absence of Pierre-Luc Dubois, makes it harder for the Caps to consistently pull away by multiple goals, even against a leaky Ducks defense. Anaheim also has a history of getting big nights from Trevor Zegras against this opponent, and while his specific usage may vary in this deeper forward group, his past production versus Washington reinforces the idea that the Ducks have enough top-end skill to stay within striking distance. With both teams in the thick of tightly packed divisional races around the season’s midpoint, the incentive to lock in points—even via overtime—further supports a one-goal outcome more often than the market implies, but the expensive -188 price drags value down to a C+ despite a reasonably strong chance of cashing. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/01/2026 09:25