Ducks vs Avalanche

Nathan MacKinnon and the Avalanche roll into this one with a 34-5-8 record, league-best scoring at 4.02 goals per game, and just 2.30 against, sitting atop the Central and firmly in Presidents’ Trophy territory, while the Ducks are 25-21-3 with a negative goal differential (3.22 GF, 3.57 GA) and battling in a crowded Pacific playoff race at 53 points. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/_/name/col/colorado-avalanche)) Anaheim has jolted back to life with a four-game winning streak following a nine-game slide, but those wins (including a 5-3 decision over the Rangers and a weekend sweep of the Kings) came just after losing Leo Carlsson, their leading scorer with 18 goals and 44 points, for 3-5 weeks, while Frank Vatrano and Petr Mrazek are on IR and Troy Terry remains on IR but could return during this trip. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/_/name/Ana)) Colorado isn’t perfectly healthy either, missing Devon Toews (week-to-week), Gabriel Landeskog and Joel Kiviranta, but their blue line still runs through Cale Makar and Samuel Girard in front of elite team defense. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/injuries/_/name/col/colorado-avalanche)) Historically this matchup tilts hard toward the Avs’ stars: MacKinnon has piled up 17 goals and 30 assists in 35 games vs Anaheim, while Makar has racked up 2 goals and 15+ assists in roughly a season’s worth of meetings, and Colorado has already handled Anaheim 4-1 in Denver this season. ([statmuse.com](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/nathan-mackinnon-stats-against-anaheim-ducks?utm_source=openai)) With Colorado’s depth confirmed on the current ESPN roster, Anaheim’s top-end firepower depleted, and the Avs protecting a huge standings cushion in a game that still matters for playoff seeding, Colorado’s moneyline at -300 is very likely to cash but offers modest value, so I grade this Avalanche ML play as an A- for likelihood but only middling monetary upside. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:35

Colorado games shape totals markets on their own right now: they’re averaging 4.02 goals for with a top-ranked defense (2.30 GA, 84.8% PK), while Anaheim brings a looser profile at 3.22 GF, 3.57 GA, 25th on the power play and 23rd on the kill, which still projects this matchup north of 6.5 on pure scoring rates. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/_/name/col/colorado-avalanche)) The Avalanche have stacked multi-goal offensive nights at Ball Arena, including a recent 6-0 demolition of San Jose and a 4-1 win over these Ducks in November, and they’re coming off another five-goal outing against Washington that suggests the top line is still humming. ([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/news/san-jose-sharks-colorado-avalanche-game-recap-november-26-2025?utm_source=openai)) However, Anaheim’s attack is materially weakened: Carlsson (18-26–44) and Vatrano are both out, Terry is still on IR (even if he’s close), and that recent four-game win streak has leaned more on structure and opportunistic finishing than sheer shot volume, with scores like 3-2, 2-1, 3-2 and 5-3. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/injuries/_/name/ana)) The Avs’ current roster still features MacKinnon and Makar in peak form and enough depth to threaten six by themselves against a leaky Ducks PK if Anaheim is chasing, but there is some risk that a shorthanded Ducks forward group can’t do enough scoring to pull this over across the line, particularly with Colorado’s commitment to team defense. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/roster/_/name/col/colorado-avalanche)) With market pricing already shaded toward offense at 6.5 and -143, I lean to the Over based on combined underlying numbers and Colorado’s blowout potential, but I’m only giving it a B- because the juice is heavy and Anaheim’s injury-thinned forward corps adds real downside variance. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:35

Given Colorado’s profile, the puckline is where the risk/reward starts to look more attractive: they sit first in the Central at 34-5-8 with a +1.72 goal differential per game, have already beaten Anaheim 4-1 at home this season and 4-2 in Anaheim last year, and have been racking up multi-goal wins during a dominant home stretch at Ball Arena. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/_/name/col/colorado-avalanche)) The Ducks arrive on a four-game heater that’s kept them in the thick of the Pacific playoff race, but they’re still a negative-goal-differential team with bottom-tier defensive metrics and a compromised top six missing Carlsson and Vatrano and potentially still without Terry at the front end of a road trip through altitude. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/_/name/Ana)) Meanwhile, MacKinnon and Makar—both confirmed on Colorado’s current roster—have historically carved Anaheim, combining for well over a point per game each in this matchup, and the Avs’ special teams edge (No. 1 penalty kill vs. a middling Ducks PP) increases the likelihood of late separation and empty-net insurance if Anaheim has to press for an equalizer. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/roster/_/name/col/colorado-avalanche)) With Colorado incentivized to keep banking regulation wins for home-ice positioning and Anaheim’s depth being tested on the road, I like the Avalanche to win by multiple goals more often than the puckline odds imply, so Avalanche -1.5 at -125 gets a B+ as a higher-variance but better-value play than the steep moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:35