Ducks vs Sabres

With Anaheim stuck in an 0-7-1 funk (1-8-1 in its last 10) and Buffalo ripping off 12 wins in its last 13, including a 9-1-0 run fueled by a 3.6–2.1 average goals-for/against, the current form strongly favors the Sabres on home ice, where they’re 13-5-2 compared to the Ducks’ 9-12-2 road mark. On the injury front, Anaheim is still dealing with key absences: Frank Vatrano is out roughly six weeks with a shoulder fracture, Petr Mrazek is on injured reserve, and Troy Terry just missed Thursday’s game in Carolina with an undisclosed issue, while Buffalo’s notable losses are more on the margins with depth pieces like Alex Lyon, Michael Kesselring, and Conor Timmins sidelined but the Thompson–Tuch–Dahlin core intact. Historically, the Ducks swept Buffalo in 2023-24 behind a dominant top line capped by Terry’s 1-goal, 2-assist performance at KeyBank Center, but that edge is blunted if Terry is out or limited and the Sabres now counter with a deeper, healthier blue line featuring Dahlin and Bowen Byram plus a resurgent Thompson. With the standings showing Buffalo fourth in the Atlantic at 23-15-4 (50 points) and pushing to solidify a playoff spot, and Anaheim sixth in the Pacific at 21-20-3 and sliding toward the wild-card bubble, the motivational and statistical arrows both point to the home side; at -162, I make the Sabres moneyline roughly a 65–68% proposition versus an implied probability near 62%, good enough for a B+ grade given reasonable edge but only moderate payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 09:34([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/preview/_/gameId/401803052))

Tonight’s total of 6.5 is hanging in a sweet spot for an Anaheim team that’s still scoring 3.2 goals per game on the season yet allowing a brutal 4.6 against per night over its last 10, while Buffalo averages 3.6 goals during its 9-1-0 heater and sits a bit above three per game overall, suggesting a baseline expectation in the 6–7 goal range. The Ducks’ offense is dinged by Frank Vatrano’s six-week shoulder absence and a banged-up Troy Terry, but their lack of discipline (13.7 penalty minutes per game lately) feeds opportunities to a Sabres power play running around 18% and driven by Rasmus Dahlin and Bowen Byram from the back end, and Buffalo has multiple hot hands in Thompson, Tuch, and Jason Zucker capable of piling on if Anaheim’s coverage continues to break down. On the other side, Anaheim still rolls out plenty of skill in Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Chris Kreider, and Mason McTavish, and even with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen giving Buffalo steadier goaltending (2.61 GAA, .903 save percentage), the combination of Anaheim’s defensive leaks, Buffalo’s transition game, and likely special-teams volume makes 4-3 or 5-2 scorelines very live outcomes. Because Over 6.5 at -138 implies roughly a 58% break-even and I rate the true hit rate a touch lower in the mid-50s—there is a real path to a Sabres-dominated 4-1 or 4-2 result if the Ducks’ offense completely stalls—I’ll grade the Over as a B- pick: aligned with the game script that favors Buffalo but offering only a modest edge over the number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 09:34([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/preview/_/gameId/401803052))

Buffalo -1.5 at 140 leans into the idea that the red-hot Sabres not only extend Anaheim’s misery but do so by multiple goals, something supported by recent trends: Buffalo has taken 12 of its last 13 and is coming off a 5-2 win at Madison Square Garden, while Anaheim’s 1-8-1 skid has seen it outscored roughly 46–26 over 10 games and lose by two or more in most of those contests. Even acknowledging that the Ducks swept this matchup in 2023-24 behind big nights from Troy Terry, Frank Vatrano, and Mason McTavish, the current roster context matters—Vatrano is out long term, Terry is coming off an injury absence, and Anaheim is leaning on Ville Husso and a young, mistake-prone blue line, whereas Buffalo now has a deeper attack with Thompson, Tuch, Josh Doan, and Zucker plus a Dahlin–Byram–Samuelsson top four that can tilt the ice and punish late-game empty nets. From a playoff-race perspective, the Sabres are entrenched in a crowded Atlantic Division battle and have every incentive to push for regulation wins, while a slumping Anaheim side hovering around the West’s wild-card bubble may be content to shorten games and simply salvage any point, a dynamic that often leads to aggressive empty-net usage by the trailing team and increases the chance of a two-goal Sabres margin. Given the inherent volatility of pucklines and the fact that Anaheim still has enough offensive talent to keep this within one, I grade Buffalo -1.5 as a C+ option: attractive plus-money upside that pairs well with a Sabres moneyline position, but not strong enough to be a stand-alone primary play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 09:34([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/preview/_/gameId/401803052))